Jonathan Von Tobel analyzes the opening lines and initial line moves for Week 4 of college football.
The regular season enters Week 4 and injuries are starting to mount across the country. This week, we have multiple quarterback injuries that are affecting lines, and the market is making its opinion known on those injuries.
It is also fascinating to see the market really dig its heels in on its opinion of certain teams.
For example, Indiana is rising up the market power ratings after a big win over UCLA in Los Angeles. The same could be said for Tennessee, which is 3-0 SU and ATS with a +27.2 spread differential.
We also have some programs that the market is fading with gusto.
Open: IU (-23, 50.5) | IU (-28, 48.5)
The betting market was behind Indiana all the way in Los Angeles on Saturday, and it was rewarded. The Hoosiers roughed up the Bruins 42-13 at the Rose Bowl and covered every number with ease. Kurtis Rourke tossed four touchdowns and the team totaled 430 yards of offense. It’s clear the power rating on the Hoosiers is rising. The line against UCLA was bet up, and so too is this one against Charlotte. The 49ers needed 21 points in the fourth quarter last week to get by Gardner-Webb by a single point. Charlotte’s true freshman quarterback Deshawn Purdie did have to leave the win on Saturday, so keep that in mind as well.
N.C. State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers
Open: CLEM (-15.5, 45.5) | Current: CLEM (-17, 48)
Grayson McCall left N.C. State’s win over Louisiana Tech with an injury on Saturday. Freshman CJ Bailey led the Wolfpack to a victory, but McCall’s status will obviously decide where this line closes. Regardless, it is worth pointing out that the lookahead line for this contest at DraftKings had Clemson as a 12.5-point favorite. The opening number of 15.5 on Sunday had seemingly factored in McCall’s injury, but apparently not enough for the betting market. The Tigers are coming off a bye week.
Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas
Open: CMU (-5, 45.5) | Current: CMU (-7, 53)
Central Michigan went into the contest Illinois ranked 107th in the country in opponent EPA per play, according to College Football Insiders. It proceeded to allow the Illini to average 8.3 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per carry in a 30-9 loss. Ball State was 117th in the same category before losing to Miami 62-0 on the road. Perhaps the poor metrics for both defenses is why this total was bet up 7.5 points on Sunday. This line also moved to a key number with ease. The Cardinals did not have both starting wide receivers – Ty Robinson and Justin Bowick – in the loss to Miami. If one or both play this line likely comes off the full touchdown.
Rice Owls at Army Black Knights
Open: ARMY (-2, 44.5) | Current: ARMY (-7, 42)
Rice was blown out by Houston on Saturday. The Owls are now 1-2 ATS and have failed to cover by 5.3 points per game for the season. But, against the two FBS opponents on its schedule Rice is 0-2 ATS with a -27.5 spread differential. The Black Knights have won and covered both contests this season, and it is coming off a bye week. The Owls’ lackluster performances against similar competition is likely why the market came in on Army today. Still, it is shocking to see the market hammer a line to the point it blows through one key number and gets to another like this.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos
Open: FRES (-17, 55.5) | Current: FRES (-15, 61.5)
The line has not moved much in this game from the open, but the total was bet up six points on Sunday. New Mexico is 3-0 to the over this season, and its games have gone over by 18.8 points per game. The Lobos are one of the worst defenses in the country. They were 127th in defensive success rate before the Tigers dropped 45 points and 503 total yards on them. New Mexico does its share for the total as well though. The Lobos had 448 yards and averaged 6.1 yards per carry in the loss. Devon Dampier is leading an explosive offense for New Mexico, and this team alone is why this total moved the way it did on Sunday.
UTEP Miners at Colorado State Rams
Open: CSU (-11.5, 56.5) | Current: CSU (-10, 51)
Colorado State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country through the first three weeks of the season. The Rams are 0-3 ATS and have failed to cover on average by 12.7 points per game. In the latest failure, Colorado State managed just nine points and turned the ball over four times in the loss to Colorado. UTEP is 0-3 ATS itself, so something has to give this weekend. The total is the big move here though. Circa Sports opened it 56.5 and it sits at 51 as of Sunday night.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Ole Miss Rebels
Open: MISS (-30, 65.5) | Current: MISS (-35.5, 66.5)
The number moved against the Rebels on Saturday in the win and cover over the Demon Deacons, but today is a different day. Perhaps the betting market is repenting for its ways. Or, it sees a very vulnerable Georgia Southern squad. The Eagles were 121st in the country in opponent EPA per play prior to Week 3 action. Boise State ran for 371 yards on 10.6 per carry in Week 1 against this defense. Nevada put up 227 yards on the ground a week later. Ole Miss should be able to name the score here. Thus, this number was bet up 5.5 points from the opening line.
Tennessee Volunteers at Oklahoma Sooners
Open: UT (-6, 60.5) | Current: UT (-7.5, 58)
Matt Grill – DraftKings trading manager – told us on VSiN PrimeTime that 140 of the first 141 bets on the lookahead line for this game were on Tennessee. That was when the Volunteers opened as just two-point favorites. Tennessee is laying 7.5 as of Sunday evening. The big move is due to two factors: The Vols’ dominance and the Sooners’ lackluster start. Oklahoma was fortunate to cover in the win over Tulane on Saturday. Jackson Arnold has looked average at best since the win over Temple in Week 1. Perhaps this is the time to buy on Oklahoma, but the market is clearly out on the Sooner for now.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Texas Mean Green
Open: NT (-6, 54.5) | Current: NT (-9, 55.5)
How bad is Wyoming? The Cowboys have looked horrendous on both sides of the ball, but the offense has been particularly putrid. Wyoming ranks 132nd in total offense, 130th in scoring and 128th in passing offense after Week 3. It is 0-3 SU and ATS with a -18.8 spread differential. Injuries have plagued Wyoming early, but this start to the season has been abhorrent. Is this the buy-low point for Jay Sawvel?
The regular season enters Week 4 and injuries are starting to mount across the country. This week, we have multiple quarterback injuries that are affecting lines, and the market is making its opinion known on those injuries.
It is also fascinating to see the market really dig its heels in on its opinion of certain teams.
For example, Indiana is rising up the market power ratings after a big win over UCLA in Los Angeles. The same could be said for Tennessee, which is 3-0 SU and ATS with a +27.2 spread differential.
We also have some programs that the market is fading with gusto.
College Football Week 4 Odds Report
Charlotte 49ers at Indiana HoosiersOpen: IU (-23, 50.5) | IU (-28, 48.5)
The betting market was behind Indiana all the way in Los Angeles on Saturday, and it was rewarded. The Hoosiers roughed up the Bruins 42-13 at the Rose Bowl and covered every number with ease. Kurtis Rourke tossed four touchdowns and the team totaled 430 yards of offense. It’s clear the power rating on the Hoosiers is rising. The line against UCLA was bet up, and so too is this one against Charlotte. The 49ers needed 21 points in the fourth quarter last week to get by Gardner-Webb by a single point. Charlotte’s true freshman quarterback Deshawn Purdie did have to leave the win on Saturday, so keep that in mind as well.
N.C. State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers
Open: CLEM (-15.5, 45.5) | Current: CLEM (-17, 48)
Grayson McCall left N.C. State’s win over Louisiana Tech with an injury on Saturday. Freshman CJ Bailey led the Wolfpack to a victory, but McCall’s status will obviously decide where this line closes. Regardless, it is worth pointing out that the lookahead line for this contest at DraftKings had Clemson as a 12.5-point favorite. The opening number of 15.5 on Sunday had seemingly factored in McCall’s injury, but apparently not enough for the betting market. The Tigers are coming off a bye week.
Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas
Open: CMU (-5, 45.5) | Current: CMU (-7, 53)
Central Michigan went into the contest Illinois ranked 107th in the country in opponent EPA per play, according to College Football Insiders. It proceeded to allow the Illini to average 8.3 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per carry in a 30-9 loss. Ball State was 117th in the same category before losing to Miami 62-0 on the road. Perhaps the poor metrics for both defenses is why this total was bet up 7.5 points on Sunday. This line also moved to a key number with ease. The Cardinals did not have both starting wide receivers – Ty Robinson and Justin Bowick – in the loss to Miami. If one or both play this line likely comes off the full touchdown.
Rice Owls at Army Black Knights
Open: ARMY (-2, 44.5) | Current: ARMY (-7, 42)
Rice was blown out by Houston on Saturday. The Owls are now 1-2 ATS and have failed to cover by 5.3 points per game for the season. But, against the two FBS opponents on its schedule Rice is 0-2 ATS with a -27.5 spread differential. The Black Knights have won and covered both contests this season, and it is coming off a bye week. The Owls’ lackluster performances against similar competition is likely why the market came in on Army today. Still, it is shocking to see the market hammer a line to the point it blows through one key number and gets to another like this.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos
Open: FRES (-17, 55.5) | Current: FRES (-15, 61.5)
The line has not moved much in this game from the open, but the total was bet up six points on Sunday. New Mexico is 3-0 to the over this season, and its games have gone over by 18.8 points per game. The Lobos are one of the worst defenses in the country. They were 127th in defensive success rate before the Tigers dropped 45 points and 503 total yards on them. New Mexico does its share for the total as well though. The Lobos had 448 yards and averaged 6.1 yards per carry in the loss. Devon Dampier is leading an explosive offense for New Mexico, and this team alone is why this total moved the way it did on Sunday.
UTEP Miners at Colorado State Rams
Open: CSU (-11.5, 56.5) | Current: CSU (-10, 51)
Colorado State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country through the first three weeks of the season. The Rams are 0-3 ATS and have failed to cover on average by 12.7 points per game. In the latest failure, Colorado State managed just nine points and turned the ball over four times in the loss to Colorado. UTEP is 0-3 ATS itself, so something has to give this weekend. The total is the big move here though. Circa Sports opened it 56.5 and it sits at 51 as of Sunday night.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Ole Miss Rebels
Open: MISS (-30, 65.5) | Current: MISS (-35.5, 66.5)
The number moved against the Rebels on Saturday in the win and cover over the Demon Deacons, but today is a different day. Perhaps the betting market is repenting for its ways. Or, it sees a very vulnerable Georgia Southern squad. The Eagles were 121st in the country in opponent EPA per play prior to Week 3 action. Boise State ran for 371 yards on 10.6 per carry in Week 1 against this defense. Nevada put up 227 yards on the ground a week later. Ole Miss should be able to name the score here. Thus, this number was bet up 5.5 points from the opening line.
Tennessee Volunteers at Oklahoma Sooners
Open: UT (-6, 60.5) | Current: UT (-7.5, 58)
Matt Grill – DraftKings trading manager – told us on VSiN PrimeTime that 140 of the first 141 bets on the lookahead line for this game were on Tennessee. That was when the Volunteers opened as just two-point favorites. Tennessee is laying 7.5 as of Sunday evening. The big move is due to two factors: The Vols’ dominance and the Sooners’ lackluster start. Oklahoma was fortunate to cover in the win over Tulane on Saturday. Jackson Arnold has looked average at best since the win over Temple in Week 1. Perhaps this is the time to buy on Oklahoma, but the market is clearly out on the Sooner for now.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Texas Mean Green
Open: NT (-6, 54.5) | Current: NT (-9, 55.5)
How bad is Wyoming? The Cowboys have looked horrendous on both sides of the ball, but the offense has been particularly putrid. Wyoming ranks 132nd in total offense, 130th in scoring and 128th in passing offense after Week 3. It is 0-3 SU and ATS with a -18.8 spread differential. Injuries have plagued Wyoming early, but this start to the season has been abhorrent. Is this the buy-low point for Jay Sawvel?
